To the guy above me: You idiot, Penn State does not choke in big games, if they lose it's by a small margin. Our worst bowl loss was by two touchdowns. And JoePa is the bowl winningest coach in history. We are not Ohio State.
That being said, Penn State is going to win. I don't want to get ahead of myself here and predict some crazy blowout, but I think what must be considered is their performances against common opponents, and then assess how each team has looked thus far.
Purdue
-Penn State beat them 20-6 in Ross-Ade. Penn State got out to a 20-0 lead, put in some backups, and ran a prevent defense. On Purdue's last posession, they score a meaningless touchdown and miss the extra point. Penn State had two touchdowns and two field goals.
-Ohio State beat them 16-3 in the Shoe. Ohio State's only touchdown was a defensive touchdown, their offense only managed three field goals. Ohio State was outgained by Purdue who couldn't capitalize on the opportunities. Ohio State managed to stop Purdue's momentum, since they had driven down the field by game's end ready to score, but stopped on 4th down. Unlike Penn State who won because they dominated, Ohio State merely won because they scored the most points.
Wisconsin
-Ohio State beat them 20-17 in Camp Randall. After getting a 7-0 lead, Wisconsin took a 10-0 lead. Momentum swung back and forth between the two. Pryor won the game in the last minute with a touchdown run. All in all a very close, down to wire game.
-Penn State beat them 48-7. Unlike their game with Ohio State, this game was only close for one quarter. Penn State made it 17-0 before Wisconsin got on the board, but that only seemed to enrage the Nittany Lions. Many reserves saw action in the fourth quarter, such as Brandon Beachum, Pat Devlin, and I think Paul Cianciolo. The game never felt close, even in the first quarter, since the Badgers had very few good plays and were pretty much stuffed all game, even by the second string defense.
As you can see, Penn State has a clear advantage in common opponents. Now let's analyze how they've looked so far.
-Confidence: Advantage - Penn State; Penn State has displayed a confident swagger in the way they've been playing, while Ohio State started sleepwalking as soon as Beanie Wells was injured, and haven't left that trance yet.
-Points Scored: Advantage - Penn State; Penn State averages 45 points a game, and has only been held to under 40 by two opponents. Ohio State has sputtered, with some very low point totals. Highest was 66 against Coastal Carolina, lowest was 20 at Purdue for PSU. Ohio State's highest was 43 against Youngstown State and 3 at USC.
-Points Allowed: Advantage - Penn State; Penn State has only allowed one team over 14 points, that was Illinois who scored 24. That Illinois team then went on to blow out Michigan in the Big House. Ohio State has allowed more than 14 points from three opponents, and their highest points allowed were 35 from USC.
-Big Playmakers: Advantage - Penn State; Penn State has Clark, Norwood, Williams, Butler, Royster, and Green. Ohio State has Pryor, Wells, and Robiskie.
-Series History: Advantage - Push; The series is pretty even at 12-11, and in close games the history can make a difference, wanting to make a statement or trying to break a skid. It's been pretty even overall for these two rivals.
-Home Field Advantage: Advantage - Ohio State; Penn State hasn't won there since 1978, but they didn't play the Buckeyes from the 1980 Fiesta Bowl until 1993. Despite having seven straight wins in the Horseshoe over Penn State, Penn State is undefeated when favored to win there, which happened once. However, the Horseshoe is a tough place to get a win.
-Coaching: Advantage - Penn State; Joe Paterno is a much better coach than Jim Tressel, especially this year. Jim Tressel is likely looking to be the first coach since Woody Hayes to lose to Penn State at home.
-Fan Base: Advantage - Push; Both teams have a rabid fanbase. Both teams like to take over other stadiums, but neither can make a dent in taking over the other's stadium. This year, however, expect to hear some "We Are.....Penn State" amidst the "O-H-I-O" chants, since I'm sure Penn State fans will want to take some home advantage away from the Buckeyes.
So there you have it, Penn State has the advantage in evey category. But I know games aren't played on paper, so there's one thing to factor into this. HEART - Penn State has a huge advantage here, they play a lot tougher and meaner than the Buckeyes this year, and they are determined to win. Despite the whining from the critics, Penn State has faced adversity, they just kept going on like nothing happened and overcame it.
Here's my score prediction:
Penn State: 34 (all scored in the first three quarters before the reserves come out)
Ohio State: 8 (touchdown and two point conversion in the fourth quarter against our scrubs)
Edit: To the guy below me, Penn State also destroyed Oregon State who beat your Trojans. And OSU played Wisconsin too, buddy. And struggled. Think before you make random comments.